Could an Asteroid Hit Montana? What We Know About 2024 YR4

The end of days has been predicted for as long as humanity has existed. One of the biggest fears among apocalyptic prophets? An asteroid striking Earth. And they’re not wrong—history proves it’s happened before. Just ask the dinosaurs… oh wait, you can’t.

Now, breaking news suggests that the odds of an asteroid impact are higher than ever. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has just more than doubled its chances of colliding with our cosmic oasis, jumping from a 1% chance to a 2.3% chance.

There is a 2.3% chance that an asteroid will hit Earth, with this event estimated to occur in 2032.

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How big is the asteroid 2024 YR4?

According to NASA, the asteroid is estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide. It is classified as a "near-Earth asteroid," meaning it’s within our orbit and serious enough to warrant formal notifications to government agencies.

What does this mean for Montana?

Even though the likelihood of it hitting earth is still small, it is a large enough of a rock to cause serious localized damage.

For example, in 1908 an asteroid about 160-200 feet wide disinegrated over Siberia causing over 80 million trees to flatten over an area of 830 square miles. Once again, this asteroid did not strike the ground intact, yet it caused significant destruction—terrifying!

We don't know where it would hit, if it does strike, so their really isn't much to worry about at the moment.

Montana, with its wide-open landscapes and sparse population, could serve as a refuge in a worst-case scenario. But let’s hope we don’t have to find out.

The positive aspect amidst all the uncertainty is that the large floating rock is being closely monitored. Data will be available on NASA's Sentry page, and updates will continue to be posted on NASA's planetary defense blog.

Credit: NPR, NASA