NOAA and Old Farmer’s Almanac Disagree on Montana’s Winter

Here we are in Montana in September, and even though we're still enjoying some of the last days of summer, we're already starting to look ahead to fall, and even winter.

We have the NOAA winter forecast for December, January, and February, and it's leaning toward an El Niño-type pattern for Montana.

NOAA's Winter Outlook: Warm and Dry Conditions

That could mean above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for much of the state. 

In other words, we're potentially looking at a warmer and drier winter. 

READ MORE: NOAA’s Updated Montana Winter Forecast Isn’t Great News for Snow

But here's where things get interesting. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac isn't completely on the same page with NOAA — especially when it comes to western Montana. 

For central and eastern Montana, which the Almanac places in its High Plains region, the forecast is actually fairly similar to what NOAA is calling for. 

The Almanac is expecting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, with snowfall also expected to be near or below normal. 

The Almanac says the coldest periods could come in early and late January and early and late February, while the snowiest periods could arrive around late January and into mid-March. 

Western Montana: A Different Story Emerging

But when you get into western Montana, things change quite a bit. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac's Intermountain region is calling for a warmer, wetter winter. 

READ MORE: Montana’s First Frost Could Be Coming Sooner Than You Think

They're expecting temperatures to be above normal, but precipitation to be above normal as well, with snowfall also potentially above normal. 

The coldest periods could come in mid-to-late December, early and late January, and early February. 

The Almanac says some of the snowiest stretches could be late November, late December, and early February. 

Old Farmer's Almanac Winter 2026

That's a pretty big difference from the warmer-and-drier scenario we're getting from NOAA. 

If you're a skier, snowboarder, snowmobiler or just somebody who likes having a good snowpack in the mountains, you're probably hoping the Old Farmer's Almanac gets this one right. 

Because if that forecast holds, Western Montana could be looking at a pretty good winter for snow.

If NOAA's forecast continues to hold, though, we could be looking at a warmer and drier winter with less snowfall than normal. 

Forecasting Challenges: The Uncertainty of Long-Range Predictions

Of course, we're still a few months away from the heart of winter, and these long-range forecasts can change. 

So for now, keep your fingers crossed — especially if you're hoping for a lot of snow in the mountains this winter. 

Because at this point, the Almanac and NOAA aren't exactly telling us the same story.